Hacer pronósticos no es fácil. En muchas ocasiones las predicciones hechas por los expertos en relaciones internacionales no se cumplen. Sin embargo, predecir es una de las tareas que constantemente se les requiere. El trabajo analiza el método más común de predicción, la extrapolación, y las dificultades que enfrentan otras áreas del conocimiento que trabajan con pronósticos (las teorías de las relaciones internacionales, el análisis estratégico y los negocios). En estos casos, se muestra que no se puede eliminar la incertidumbre pero sí mejorar la precisión de los pronósticos.

This paper sets forth a framework of analysis that links contractual, discretionary, regulatory and residual cash flows with decision rights over them. To attain this purpose, firstly we introduce the standard incremental cash flow model, underlying its main limitations. Secondly, we move on bringing to light cash flows to senior management and directors, as well as the so-often neglected investment portfolio.

In this paper we show that a homogeneous-product market with multiple Bertrand equilibria becomes a market with a single Bertrand equilibrium when we introduce a small degree of product differentiation. When differentiation tends to zero, that Bertrand equilibrium converges to the unique price-taking equilibrium of the homogeneous-product market, which is in turn one of the multiple Bertrand equilibria for that market.

El presente libro tiene su origen en unos humildes apuntes redactados con el fin de introducir a alumnos de post-grado a ciertos temas de la filosofía política contemporánea. Fue redactado en el primer semestre de 2004. Sin embargo, a medida que iba profundizando ciertos temas, me di cuenta que, aunque el carácter del texto era introductorio, contenía una tesis que podía ser ofrecida perfectamente a los colegas filósofos preocupados por los grandes temas de la modernidad, la post-modernidad y la crisis de la democracia.

Gino Germani was an Italian-born Argentine sociologist who in 1956 offered the first interpretation of peronism based upon current social science categories. Popular interpretations of peronism considered it a local version of fascism. Germani specified the differences between these two political phenomena, but still considered the first as a special case of the second. This paper studies Germani’s first interpretation of peronism and fascism in order to single out the criteria allowing him to include both regimes within a single category.

El enfoque de las capacidades propuesto por Amartya Sen para la consideración de las cuestiones referidas al desarrollo económico y a la pobreza, así como lo concerniente al bienestar de las personas, se basa en dos conceptos o ideas esenciales indisolubles: la de libertad y la de funcionamientos, que algunos definen como los “seres y quehaceres (o acciones)” valiosos que constituyen los fines de la vida humana.

A headline of the Venezuelean daily El Nacionalista, published June 16, 2008, read: “Venezuela se negó a seguir de rodillas ante las pretensiones del gobierno norteamericano”. A few weeks before, on May 8, president Hugo Chávez himself had said that Venezuela “would not watch crossed-armed” (“Venezuela no se quedará de brazos cruzados”) while Bolivia was driven into territorial desintegration by imperialist forces. The image of Venezuela with her arms crossed is one of slovenliness and negligence, whilst the image of it on its knees is humiliating.

While in the study of Corporate Governance we can avail ourselves of the incremental cash-flow model (ICFM), the analysis of Public Governance has been falling behind with this issue. The paper sets forth an innovative linkage between both fields of learning and practice, by means of a suitable framing of such model that would allow us to take advantage of a deeper research focus just within the interface of both governances. Firstly, the ICM is derived in the current shape that experts in Corporate Governance make use of it.

The relationship between lifestyle choices and health has been widely studied in the epidemiological and economic literature. In the last years, empirical research was directed towards the use of recursive systems with structural equations for a health production function and reduced form equations for lifestyles. As a result, behaviors toward health are taken to be determined by exogenous socio-economic variables. In this article, we show that health is a key determinant of health habits. When people feel well, they adopt less healthy behaviors.

En ¿Qué hubiera pasado si…? (Vergara, 2008) el analista político Rosendo Fraga planteó 15 ejercicios de historia contrafáctica, referidos a la historia política y militar argentina.